Bloomberg’s Top Economic Forecaster? That’s Me

by Andrew Zatlin

Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are led by savvy financial analysts.

But when it comes to forecasting the economy — not to toot my own horn — I’m better.

Let me show you why I’m the best at what I do…

And reveal how you can leverage me to profit in today’s markets.

For a transcript of this video, see below. This transcript has been lightly edited for length and clarity.

Bloomberg’s Top Economic Forecaster? That’s Me

It’s time for a team meeting.

You see, you’re on the Moneyball Economics team. And I’m guessing you joined the team in order to get unique insights into the stock market and the economy…

Insights that can help you earn market-beating returns and build long-term wealth.

As your “coach,” I sure hope I’ve steered you toward those goals. And today, I want to give you an inside look at the playbook I use.

The Importance of Hiring Data

OK, enough with the sports analogies. Let’s talk about hiring data.

As you know, it’s the centerpiece of my economic forecasting. And it’s a big reason why Bloomberg ranked me No. 1 among all economists — not JP Morgan, not Goldman Sachs, and not any of those talking heads you see on television.

Hiring data gives unparalleled visibility into how the economy, and often how the stock market, will fare in the weeks and months ahead. And that’s for a simple reason.

Companies that are heading in the right direction hire more people. Companies headed in the wrong direction don’t. This is true for entire sectors, too.

But there’s another factor that relates to why hiring data can be so important. And it has to do with something that happened last week…

I Beat the Experts

A week ago, payroll numbers were released. As you can see by the chart below, the consensus projected the number to be around 168,000. Meanwhile, I was considerably more bullish, projecting a number closer to 280,000.

The number that was released? More than 300,000. This indicated a strong economy and sent the Fed scrambling. It also demonstrated that I’ve got a much more accurate idea of what’s going on out there compared to the “experts.”

But if you recall from a recent video, this 300,000 number shouldn’t have come as a shock. January payrolls are historically high. And we’re in an environment where companies are operating lean and mean.

The thing is, I don’t expect this type of number to last. And that’ll play a role in the types of returns you can expect to earn in the stock market. Let me explain…

Slow and Steady Growth Ahead

You see, based on my hiring data, I’m forecasting lower payroll numbers for the rest of the year — lower than 300,000, anyway. And that will translate to slow and steady growth — still growth, though! — for the stock market in 2024.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m still expecting a double-digit climb this year. But it’s not likely to happen in a sudden burst.

Here’s a look at hiring activity for companies in the S&P 500:

 

Toward the end of 2023, hiring levels jumped. But now, they’re starting to level off. This is indicative of a slow and steady approach to hiring that companies are taking. And it means we’ll need to be patient with respect to earning returns from the market.

Of course, no matter which direction hiring activity is trending, we can always identify certain winners and losers…

Who’s Hiring?

For instance, a lot of companies are betting big on Artificial Intelligence (AI). And they’re hiring because of it.

Intel (INTC) makes computer servers, which will handle a lot of AI-related tasks:

 

Micron Technology (MU) makes memory chips and is expected to have similar AI-related responsibilities as Intel:

Then there’s Microsoft (MSFT), which is diving head-first into AI. It’s even incorporating the technology into its upcoming computers:

As AI transitions from a niche idea to a mainstream technology, companies that invest heavily in it could deliver their investors significant returns.

Meanwhile…

The Magic is Back at Disney

A look at my hiring data tells me that consumers are back. And they’re spending non-stop.

One of the largest consumer-facing companies is Disney (DIS), whose hiring has ticked up:

 

Following some shuffling at the executive level, and subsequent layoffs in an attempt to get lean and mean, Disney is ready to expand and grow its business. If you’re looking to add some “Disney magic” to your portfolio, I’d say you’re on the right track.

We’re in it to win it. Zatlin out.

In it to win it,

Moneyball Economics