Proof That 2024 Will Deliver Double-Digit Returns

by Andrew Zatlin

Between the upcoming election and positive economic fundamentals, I’m forecasting a great year for stock-market investors.

But admittedly, that’s merely a prediction — it’s a forecast based on my opinion.

But today, we’re going to forget about opinions.

Instead, I’m here to give you the facts.

For a transcript of this video, see below. This transcript has been lightly edited for length and clarity.

Proof That 2024 Will Deliver Double-Digit Returns

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again:

If you want to know how a company is expecting to fare tomorrow, you’ve got to look at its hiring activity today.

It’s an important lesson I’ve continuously hammered home.

And today, I want to show you exactly what I’m talking about…

Today’s Hiring is Tomorrow’s Business

Let’s look at Apple (AAPL), one of the world’s biggest companies.

The chart you see below features Apple’s hiring activity (the red line) and its revenue growth (the black line) since 2012. Notice how, with the exception of COVID — what a surreal economic experience that was — these two lines are closely correlated.

 

But wait a minute. How can we use hiring data effectively if changes in revenue happen at the same time? Won’t we miss out on any growth opportunities? Not so fast…

A Crystal Ball for Making Money

I’m sorry to say that I played a small trick on you. You see, I tweaked that chart a bit.

More specifically, I moved the timeline of Apple’s hiring data. In other words, this hiring data has been lagged. In reality, the hiring activity is happening before changes in revenue. Let me show you:

This is the same data as the earlier chart, only now the hiring data is in real-time. Notice anything?

For the most part, changes in Apple’s revenues come one quarter after a rise or dip in hiring activity. This means we can look at Apple’s hiring activity and get a glimpse into the company’s future revenues. And that lets us know whether it’s a good time to be bullish or bearish — it’s like a crystal ball for making money!

Another Example

Here’s a look at a semiconductor company called Lam Research Corporation (LRCX):

Again, you can see the correlation between hiring data and revenue growth. But once again, I’ve lagged the hiring data, this time by two quarters. Here’s the actual comparison:

Again, hiring precedes revenue activity, giving us opportunities to buy shares before Lam Research grows its revenue. And often, figures like revenues and earnings are reported a few weeks after a quarter ends, giving us even more time to get in early.

Of course, revenue growth is nice. But what we’re really after is growth in a company’s stock price. And sure enough, hiring data gives us predictive power with respect to stocks.

Here’s Lam Research, for example:

Changes in hiring activity are tracked by the red line. And changes in the company’s stock price are tracked by the blue line. As you can see, hiring changes happen before changes in Lam’s stock price. And when hiring activity goes up, the stock price often does, too.

How’s 2024 Looking?

Now that you understand the predictive power of my hiring data, let’s use it to get a glimpse of how the stock market will fare in 2024.

Here’s a look at hiring activity for companies in the S&P 500 through the end of 2023:

 

If you notice, the crash in hiring activity began to taper off last summer. And hiring started rising to close out the year.

That’s a sign the stock market will be on the rise shortly.

And rest assured, it’s growth we don’t want to miss out on.

Bottom line: hiring data has amazing capabilities. It can give us insights into how certain companies, sectors, and even the broader stock market will fare days, weeks, and months ahead.

That gives us time to get positioned and maximize our profit potential.

We’re in it to win it. Zatlin out.

In it to win it,

Moneyball Economics