When Will the Fed Start Slashing Interest Rates? Sooner Than You Think...

by Andrew Zatlin September 05, 2023 3:00 pm ET

Nobody knows exactly when the Fed will begin to slash interest rates.

However, a look at the most recent payroll data gives us a major hint.

Curious what I'm seeing. Let me show you...

For a transcript of this video, see below. This transcript has been lightly edited for length and clarity.

When Will the Fed Start Slashing Interest Rates? Sooner Than You Think...

The latest payroll numbers came out last Friday. And guess what?

I beat the "expert" consensus yet again. That makes six out of eight months that I've ranked among the top forecasters on Bloomberg.

Now, I don't say this to inflate my ego. I do it to drive home an important point: I'm able to forecast significant economic events before the mainstream media...

Including when the Federal Reserve will begin to slash interest rates. Let me explain...

Sooner Than You Expect

In late July, the Fed raised interest rates for the 11th time since spring 2022. Another quarter-point hike brought rates to their highest level in 22 years.

Now, everyone is waiting for rates to start falling, or at the very least stop rising.

And while I can't pinpoint a specific time when this will happen, I can say with confidence that it'll happen sooner than most experts expect.

How can I be so sure? My hiring data reveals the answer...

Two Critical Factors

You see, I'm tracking this data closely, because it's critical to understanding when we're going to see interest rate cuts commence.

Specifically, I'm looking at two factors:

Consumer spending
Business spending

Let's start with consumer spending...

Dining Out Takes a Hit

Take a look at this chart:

This shows recent payroll numbers for the food and dining sectors.

Coming out of COVID, hiring for restaurants and bars soared as people left their homes and returned to normal. But now, we're seeing a major decline.

Hiring levels for these sectors have returned to pre-COVID levels. And here's what's interesting...

A slowdown in hiring means consumers aren't going out to restaurants and bars as often as before.

That means consumer spending pressures are relaxing. In other words, the inflationary pressure that comes with increased demand is easing. That's a sign that rate cuts could be on the horizon.

Temp Workers Not Necessary

We get a similar takeaway when analyzing business spending. Take a look:

This is payroll data for the employment services sector – or temp workers.

In the last year, almost 200,000 temp workers have been let go. Why?

During COVID, full-time workers were hard to get. So companies used temp workers to fill the gaps. Now it's easier to hire full-time employees, so the need for temp workers has diminished.

This is simply another example of how companies (and the economy in general) are returning to pre-COVID levels. And in this case, wage pressures are easing because there are enough workers out there to meet demand.

In fact, the latest wage data revealed that wage growth dropped from 5% to 2.5% in just one month.

What's It All Mean?

Simply put, the Fed has been raising interest rates in order to cool off the economy. That will drive down inflation and hopefully get things back on track.

Based on the data I've shown you, we're seeing this cooldown take effect...

Meaning it may not be long before the Fed can finally ease up and start cutting interest rates.

Again, no one can precisely forecast when these rate cuts will commence. But I've got a sneaky suspicion that they'll coincide with the start of next year. That lines up perfectly with my pledge that 2024 will be "The Year of the Bull."

If you're a Pro subscriber, I'll reveal how to get positioned for this shift with a play that could generate quick gains of almost 40%.

In the meantime, we're in it to win it. Zatlin out.